Meta is testing a prediction-market app with its own employees, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, as the forecasting boom gathers pace. The app is called Takes, and unlike the real-money platforms dominating the space, its users bet with virtual points — not cash.
Employees taking part in the internal test wager a currency called "cred" on the outcomes of future events, earning points for correct calls and losing them when they get it wrong. One question reportedly on the app this week asked whether former Apple chief executive Tim Cook would become the next chief executive of Nvidia.
Meta declined to comment on the app, and the Journal reported there is no indication of when — or even whether — the company plans to release it to the public. But the internal test is a step Meta routinely takes before a public launch, and the project has been in the works for months.
Play money, not real money
Takes is a deliberate break from the model that made prediction markets famous. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi let users stake real money on everything from elections to sports results, and that real-money element has drawn lawsuits and scrutiny from state regulators across the United States.
Meta's version sidesteps that fight entirely. With no cash changing hands, Takes is closer to a game than a gambling product — a forecasting app where the reward is bragging rights and a leaderboard, not a payout. The app is reportedly aimed at users aged 18 to 34.
Internal research cited in earlier reporting anticipates at least 100 million monthly active participants if the app ever goes public.
From Arena to Takes
Takes is not Meta's first attempt at this idea, and not even its first name for it. The project was previously known inside the company as Arena, after Zuckerberg directed a small team to build a standalone prediction-market product earlier this year.
Internal documents reported by NPR in June described the plan in detail: users would receive a daily virtual allotment of play money, Meta's Llama AI model would generate questions from trending topics, and AI would also decide whether each event had happened. The documents called the app a rebuild of Forecast, a crowdsourced prediction app Meta released in 2020 and wound down two years later.
The renaming to Takes suggests the project has moved from concept to a working product in internal testing. Zuckerberg has not publicly discussed the prediction-market app, but a recording from an internal meeting this spring showed him telling employees that he and chief product officer Chris Cox had been discussing plans to develop as many as 50 new applications.
Why Meta wants in now
Prediction markets have gone from a niche hobby to one of the hottest corners of the internet in the past two years, fuelled by election betting, sports contracts and a wave of venture funding. Meta, which has watched rivals build billion-dollar businesses in categories it missed, appears determined not to sit this one out.
A play-money app would let Meta test demand, gather forecasting data and build a user base without the regulatory battles that have dogged its real-money rivals. And with Llama generating the questions and settling the outcomes, the app doubles as a showcase for Meta's AI — the same technology the company is pushing across Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp.
For now, though, Takes remains an employee-only experiment. Whether it ever reaches the app stores — and whether the public wants to bet play money on the future — is still an open question.
