By Hamza Faisal

SpaceX just unlocked its largest single tranche of shares since its record-setting June IPO. On Thursday, the second full trading day after the company's third-quarter results, up to 1.3 billion shares held by employees and early backers became eligible for sale — a wave of potential supply worth roughly $200 billion at recent prices. The stock slipped more than 2% in early trading as investors braced for the release.

The timing was no accident. SpaceX's prospectus ties its staggered lockup to earnings reports: a tranche representing about 28% of the restricted block frees up two trading days after each quarterly report. SpaceX reported on October 20 — revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161% year over year, and a $4.4 billion net profit, its first profit as a public company. Thursday's unlock is the largest single release since the $135-a-share listing, which raised $85.7 billion in the largest IPO on record.

Six unlocks in, and the biggest test arrives last

SpaceX has already navigated six unlock events totaling up to 2.27 billion shares. The results were mixed but never disastrous: shares rose 6.1% on the August 6 release, fell 4% on August 20, dipped 3.9% on September 9, barely moved on September 10 and 24, and gained 1.2% on October 9. The stock has climbed about 27% since August 6.

But Thursday's tranche is larger than those six combined — roughly 40% bigger than the August release, the largest until now. The shares are also changing hands well above the $135 IPO price, which could make holders more willing to sell. About 22% of SpaceX's roughly 13.2 billion shares can trade now; that figure rises to around 32% after today, 34% after the October 26 tranche, and 40% after the December 8 expiry.

Elon Musk, who reportedly controls about 85% of the voting power, is not among the sellers. He signed a separate 366-day lockup, keeping his shares frozen until June 2027.

Who's buying? Index funds, mostly

The natural buyer for the freed shares may be index funds. SpaceX joined the NASDAQ-100 in July, and JPMorgan has estimated $15.5 billion of index buying tied to the stock. Thursday's release and the October 26 tranche feed into the November 30 reference date for the December 21 rebalance.

The unlock calendar is now a fixture of market commentary. Jim Cramer has been tracking the releases on what he calls his "lockup watch," and investors have mapped every date: another 328 million shares unlock on Saturday, October 24 — tradable starting Monday, October 26 — and roughly 798 million more on December 8, when the standard 180-day lockup expires.

Volatility is the business model now

The stock has swung from a $135 offer price to above $225, down to near $105, and back to the mid-$140s within four months. The one insider sale on record — 342,000 shares by president Gwynne Shotwell — barely dented supply. Thursday tests whether that pattern holds when the biggest wave yet arrives.

With a ~$2 trillion market cap — around 70 times sales — and an earnings-triggered unlock calendar running through December, SPCX is becoming a textbook case of how lockup mechanics, not just fundamentals, move a mega-cap stock.

By Hamza Faisal