Marvell Heads Into October 6 Investor Day With Wall Street Expecting a $2B AI Revenue Raise

RBC Capital Markets says the chipmaker is likely to lift its fiscal 2029 AI revenue forecast by at least $2 billion, from the current estimate of more than $10 billion, in a move driven largely by its growing custom-silicon partnership with Google.

The forecast hike would continue a pattern of steadily rising targets. Marvell already increased its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to $12 billion in August, up from $11.5 billion, and raised its fiscal 2028 revenue guidance by $1.5 billion to $18 billion.

The company builds custom AI processors and networking chips that sit at the heart of hyperscaler data centers.

RBC analysts, led by Srini Pajjuri, credit most of the expected increase to Marvell's deepening relationship with Alphabet's Google. In August, Marvell granted Google a warrant to buy nearly 59 million shares at $206.58 each, with most of the warrant vesting as Google purchases Marvell chips through 2033.

RBC calculates the arrangement implies roughly $120 billion in revenue potential over six years.

Marvell already ships custom Compute Express Link, or CXL, silicon to Google, a business RBC estimates at roughly $1 billion of revenue in calendar 2028. Revenue from additional custom inference chip programs is expected to start ramping in late 2027, supporting the larger 2029 forecast.

Marvell's fiscal second-quarter results showed why expectations are high. Revenue reached $2.739 billion, up 37 percent year over year, with data-center revenue jumping 46 percent to $2.17 billion. For the third quarter, the company guided to revenue of $3.15 billion and non-GAAP earnings of $1.10 per share.

Chairman and CEO Matt Murphy said AI-related bookings remain exceptionally robust, and the company expects revenue growth to accelerate through the rest of fiscal 2027, pointing to a significant acceleration in its custom business beginning in the second half of the year.

RBC has an Outperform rating on the stock with a $360 price target.

Marvell shares have surged nearly 200 percent in 2026 on AI demand, and the investor day is the next major detail point for analysts watching how custom accelerators reshape the company's revenue mix. RBC also expects Marvell to substantially increase its total addressable market guidance and 2030 market share estimates.

The event will test whether the company can keep outrunning its own guidance. Goldman Sachs has flagged networking as the next bottleneck in AI infrastructure, and with more than 20 design wins across Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, Marvell is positioned at the center of the next buildout phase.