By Hamza Faisal
A new wave of startups believes the future is something you can compute. Armed with large language models and vast pools of data, these young companies are betting they can predict everything from stock market swings to geopolitical turning points better than even the most gifted human experts, according to a new AFP report from New York.
The claim sounds audacious, but the early evidence is striking. AI forecasting models have already reached parity with the best superforecasters — the rare individuals whose estimates are markedly superior to those of ordinary people — thanks to troves of data drawn from both public and private sources.
And the startups building them are starting to win where it counts: hedge funds.

Hedge funds are first in line

"Right now, the quickest buyers are normally the hedge funds, just because if they think they can make money off something, they can move pretty fast," said Veniamin Veselovsky, who cofounded the forecasting startup Preseen with Theo Summer.
The founders have receipts for the approach. Summer used AI tools to turn $35 into $1.9 million in just seven months on the American prediction-making site Kalshi, according to the report.
The idea, the founders stress, is not to guarantee any result but to define the probability that something will occur — and to cross-check assumptions across interconnected events, like changes in the price of oil and the war in the Middle East.
That probabilistic framing is the whole product. Rather than a single yes-or-no prediction, these systems weigh webs of related outcomes against each other, something humans struggle to do at scale.

The moment AI models started beating the champions

The industry got its clearest signal this September. Two AI models made history when they took the top spots in the Metaculus Cup, a competition among prediction champions, both human and nonhuman. It was the first time machines had outranked every human forecaster in the field.
Dan Schwarz, cofounder of the forecasting company FutureSearch, sees it as the start of a fundamental shift. By 2030, he said, "we're going to feel that what we were doing for our decision-making was complete Stone Age thinking."Even the human experts inside these companies see the writing on the wall. FutureSearch employs its own in-house wizard, superforecaster Tom Liptay — and Liptay is aware that "he's not secure in his job" in the medium term, Schwarz said. "He knows that these things are going to surpass him."
Even the human experts inside these companies see the writing on the wall. FutureSearch employs its own in-house wizard, superforecaster Tom Liptay — and Liptay is aware that "he's not secure in his job" in the medium term, Schwarz said. "He knows that these things are going to surpass him."

From startups to Wall Street

Algorithms have shaped Wall Street for more than a decade, but the rise of AI forecasting is likely to further increase the automation of financial markets.
The same techniques now being tested on questions like the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz or how a Shakira song will perform on music charts could soon underpin trading desks, insurance pricing, and corporate strategy.
Whether these startups can turn impressive demonstrations into durable businesses is the open question. Forecasting, by its nature, is judged in public and on the record — every miss is visible.
But with models already beating the best human predictors in open competition, the bet no longer looks like science fiction. It looks like a product category.
By Hamza Faisal